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Hi all,
Thanks for reading again. After a month between editions, there’s some great stuff about the new year water market, Chinese money coming into our politics, ag investment trends, our latest podcast, and the usual entertainment.

Andrew Bomm
Prices
Temporary prices last year averaged $124 across the Southern Basin and around the $130 mark in NSW valleys.

This season, best estimates have prices currently around the $280 mark. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this increase further as demand comes from permanent plantings securing their needs, and supply is limited by poor allocations and broadacre irrigators holding on to carryover before decisions about winter crop watering and summer crop plantings become more pressing.
 
There’s an obvious trading strategy at play here – give us a bell if you’d like to chat.
 
 
Storages
Murray River inflows for June were in the 19th percentile, which didn’t help an already dry situation.

Here’s an interesting graph about where storages are relative to recent history. The current situation isn’t a total disaster. However, Victoria holds more reliability than NSW, until inflows increase and their bucket spills into the NSW general security resource.

They’ve turned themselves into a bit of a parking lot and donator of water for NSW irrigators.
More BOM pessimism
The BOM outlook for August to October isn’t great, but the confidence on forecasts isn’t great at the moment. However, little information was contained in their recent outlook about why they think this is the case.
AV Weather isn’t talking up big rains for the Riverina either, predicting some benefit from showery weather, but nothing substantial over the next month (approx. 30mm).

Australian politics meets Chinese money
The intersection between Australian politics and Chinese business activity played out again last week, with state member for Wagga Daryl McGuire caught eliciting backhanders from Chinese property developers.

It’s common for Chinese asset buyers and investors to seek Australian services to assist with local legal and financial aspects of the acquisition. In return, they pay an agency fee as a commission on the value of the asset purchase. Often, there are also ongoing management fees for the service provider.

In China, projects need the approval of the central government to ensure their success. Chinese businesspeople want assurances from those with contact into government that the project has government endorsement, which means that assets are secure. This often isn’t the case in China.

This is dragging Australian politicians into Chinese agency opportunities that are emerging. If it gets business done, politicians should be endorsing Chinese investments that will bring beneficial projects into Australia, including agriculture. But the temptation to be part of these commission payments may be too much for some pollies, and they need to be weeded out.
 

Investment trends
With asset values continuing to climb, investors are seeking to deploy capital to intensifying land use through development projects. Nuts are a prime example of this, but we can expect to see the same trend in other horticulture crops as market opportunities develop. Proximity to air freight and fresh delivery in Asia could provide great opportunities for irrigators, if these developments can get through the maze of Australian regulation.
Election betting time
(From Sportsbet)
ALP                    $1.55
Coalition             $2.05

What a shocker! Sportsbet are taking more than the bookies at Carrathool races with those margins. Like the rest of us, they think a shift to the Coalition is on but not sure if it’s enough.
Generational land shifts – latest Progressive Agriculture podcast
Our latest podcast is with Toby Locke from Future Farmers Network. There’s some interesting stuff on a large demographic shift in Australian agriculture and the skills Gen Y farmers are after to make their business succeed.
Listen Here
Conference season
Ricegrowers and cotton conferences are coming up in Echuca and the Gold Coast respectively. I’m looking forward to seeing many of you in my old hometown of Echuca.  
 
Commodity info
If you’re not already, check out what commodity analysts Mecardo are providing farm businesses, either through social media or subscription.
Follow Here

1982 Family Feud – best retro ever!
The last time Richmond and Collingwood were both at the top of the ladder this classic tv was happening. And it’s amazing! Cotton and wool producers have to watch the first segment – the best.

Watch Here
Follow @progressiveagri on Twitter
Our mailing address is:
andrew@progressiveagriculture.com.au

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Progressive Agriculture · 13/120 Fitzmaurice Street · Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650 · Australia

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