Hi all,
Thanks for reading, another great update for you to enjoy!

Andrew Bomm
Temp Prices
Temp prices are getting right up there, and they’ve shifted quickly. Bidgee is around $370 and NSW Murray $350-360, though different platforms are seeing different sales prices in the Murray for some reason. Vic water is around $350 as well.

Market drivers
Continuing winter crop and livestock pasture watering is limiting supply in the market. Sheepmeat and wool producing irrigators are enjoying record commodity prices, and can justify using highly priced carryover water to maintain yield. The struggle of dryland croppers is likely to raise prices further for scarce grain production, particularly grain for animal feed.

Sentiment is also playing a large part. There is probably some slow decision-making from many potential sellers, still weighing their options or disengaged. Others may see a higher price ahead with bleak weather forecasts and be hanging out for that.

On balance I think high temp prices will start incentivising a few more sellers, and for the time being the price rises should level off.
Another grim prediction from the BOM has come out. The rainfall prediction below is matched with a prediction of warm temperatures.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently neutral. However, BOM says dry conditions are happening because of cool waters to our north west and a warming Pacific. El Nino likelihood is currently at ‘watch’, and it may appear in spring.

AV Weather is still disagreeing with the El Nino prediction, instead calling a possible move back to La Nina, or a continuing neutral phase. But he’s not confident about meaningful rain for the Riverina in August.

Random weather fact
I saw the meteor that zipped across our skies on Sunday night. My son enjoys tracking planes passing over Wagga using an app called Flight Tracker 24. I was looking at the night sky for a plane when it whizzed over my head and along my line of sight. Using the scale of stars as marbles, it was tennis ball size, and it had a tail. Amazing.

Drought politics
The politics of drought is unfolding in interesting ways. The intense dry of 2018 is disrupting most farm businesses in NSW, and in response there’s been the usual political ditherings as the weather plays out incrementally. Both the NSW and Commonwealth governments have now announced major assistance packages farm businesses and powerful tv images are spurring community fundraising to provide direct assistance to farmers.

However, there’s also an emerging movement in the agricultural community against this natural disaster welfare approach. Across Australian farm businesses, there are big discrepancies between good and poor risk managers. Those at the higher end want to leverage that skill, but are restricted in some part by subsidies for those struggling when business conditions are difficult. That frustration is now taking hold on social media.

While these complaints make economic sense, the human element of family farm ownership and their importance to local communities will always compel governments to provide direct support when enough people need it.

Protected cropping
Protected cropping is likely to grow significantly in the next 5-10 years. Being able to manage climatic conditions, pick niche market opportunities, and afford secure water supply is the kind of opportunity risk averse institutional investors are looking for. New technologies are making it more efficient and affordable, and renewable energy developments will also help reduce costs. Irrigation areas surrounding Griffith, Leeton and Shepparton are potential beneficiaries.

Turnbull axing market
Sportsbet have Turnbull at the quite short odds of $2.50 to be ousted before the election, which has to occur by May 2019.

Stuff you should know

There’s a cracking podcast out there called “Stuff you should know”. Two guys from Atlanta, GA have an interesting, research-based discussion about wide ranging topics such as how Ponzi schemes work, whether brain size is related to intelligence, and nepotism. It’s awesome.

Listen Here

Deni ute muster
I’m likely to be attending the Deni Ute Muster this year for the first time. The organisers have had a bugger of a time being forced to meet police costs that the state government should provide for free, so I’m keen to get along and support it.

It’s on 28 and 29 September.

Drought banter
An interesting tweet that came up from farm manager Sam Heagney, criticising the current portrayal of Australian farmers in drought, with little recognition to those managing variable conditions. It captured the mood of a lot of farm operators, with a big response on Twitter.

Follow Here

Col’n Carpenter
Some classic 80s comedy from one of the best.

Watch Here
Follow @progressiveagri on Twitter
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Progressive Agriculture · 13/120 Fitzmaurice Street · Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650 · Australia

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