Hi All,
Another late one, but there’s a bit on. The new business venture is a bit complicated and not yet generating any money to cross-subsidise this rag!
Hope you enjoy.

Andrew Bomm
IVT Shut
As predicted here in February the IVT has shut the other way, leaving Murray sellers unable to supply cotton water demand in the Murrumbidgee. The close came in a rush, with 30GL moving quickly to the Murrumbidgee. Brokers moved a significant amount on their own licences, delivering potential profits to selected clients.

Price implications
This trade closure hasn’t created the spike in prices that might have been expected. Bidgee prices staying at or below $150 would indicate that cotton growers have already secured their needs, or are confident about further general security allocations. The latter is unlikely. There is much less upside for Bidgee allocations than in NSW Murray, where dams are full and Victorian irrigators are passing water to their NSW counterparts.

Despite competing influences, prices are pretty even across the board in NSW. This may suggest the sharp movement of water is speculative, rather than demand driven. I sort of hope it doesn’t work out and the brokers cop it from clients. Moving that much that quickly was a pretty cynical exercise.

An interesting snippet
This paragraph from last week’s MDBA update caught my eye:

“At Balranald on the Murrumbidgee River, the flow has increased to 4,400 ML/day and is expected to remain around this rate for several more days before receding back to around 600 ML/day in the second week of November. This increase in flow, above the normal end of system target for this time of year, is due to reduced irrigation diversions following rainfall in the Murrumbidgee valley earlier in October and will be re-regulated in Lake Victoria.”

If anyone knows the details of the winners and losers in the way this water is now accounted for, please drop me a line.

Nothing to see here
The BOM’s latest outlook suggests that a La Nina event is developing, but there may be no benefit for rainfall, given countervailing conditions in the Indian Ocean. Conditions remain fairly neutral. The BOM is still calling 50/50 on above average rainfall for November to January.

AV Weather punts further out, and he’s a little pessimistic about autumn and winter after a slightly above average summer rainfall.

Pollies and products
A new phenomenon is about to hit our federal politicians and many of them don’t have a clue about how to handle it. Increasingly, they are being asked to endorse retail products, and watching this unfold in coming years will be fascinating.

Traditionally, if you wanted to promote a product in Australia, possibly the last person you would seek an endorsement from would be a politician. Bang – half your customer base alienated from the word go. However, companies seeking to export to China can’t get enough of befuddled politicians gormlessly clinging onto their product while being photographed for promotional material. It’s because Chinese people see government authority as being far more central to their lives than we do, and correlate political support for a product with the level of regulation necessary to ensure it is of high quality and safe.

Some pollies have embraced this role, while others are noticeably torn about whether they should take on the role of human billboard for a range of consumer products. For me, I get a perverse pleasure out of seeing the tables turned, and constituents using these photo opportunities for their own personal advancement, rather than the other way around as it has been for so long.

Good subscription
If you want great farm business news and information get in behind a subscription email service from Rob McConnel at Deloitte Financial Advisory.
Check It Out Here
Mitch Starc has to be a moral for highest wicket taker in the Ashes, as long as he stays fit and the resting policy has really been abandoned. He’s paying $3.75, which although the shortest of the offerings, is still good value.
Bushtech podcast
This podcast series breaking down the myths and realities about new agricultural technologies is worth getting into.
Listen Here
The Kouk
Stephen Koukoulas is the most interesting feed I’ve seen on Twitter in ages.
Check It Out Here
Cricket is back
This 80s’ Tooheys ad starring a young Mike Whitney is an absolute belter.
Watch Here
National agriculture day
Gina Rinehart has come up with the idea of a ‘national agriculture and related industries day’, and when the lady with bulk cash proposes a hackneyed idea with a clunky title, why not get around it? It’s on 21 November, and with NFF providing their strong support it’s worth trying to make into something useful.
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