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Hi all,

As usual thanks for reading, there is some great stuff for you this week. 

Andrew Bomm
Prices
Temporary prices continue to hold strong as dry conditions persist and allocations fail to materialise. Water's trading for $380 to $390 in Bidgee and NSW Murray.

There remains a question as to how much summer crop will get planted at these prices, and the possibility of reduced summer demand, especially in the Murray. Sellers hanging on for better prices in January may be disappointed if their failure to supply now limits demand later.
 
Carryover explanation
One of the features of the recent NSW Murray allocation statement was an ‘explanation’ of the distribution of carryover held in the system.

Although the intention is good, these figures don’t tell us much, especially when irrigation corporation bulk entitlement reporting to agencies isn’t disaggregated.
 
High flow explanation
The MDBA has provided an explanation of impending high flows through the Murray system in coming weeks:

“Compared with a more average inflow year when tributary inflows would refill and possibly spill storages, dry conditions this year (and no water available to MDBA in Menindee Lakes) are requiring the transfer of large volumes of water stored in Dartmouth Reservoir to Hume Reservoir and further downstream to Lake Victoria in order to help prepare the system to meet expected demands along the River Murray over summer and into autumn.”
 

Hope springs eternal
The El Nino event looks less likely, with BOM reporting the majority of models backing off their El Nino forecasts. However, a likely increasing IOD is helping drive current dry conditions. The BOM is calling average rainfall for most of NSW in from October-December, but a worse scenario for October.

The Norwegians at YR have been having a shocker, calling major rain events in the Riverina a week out that have been disappearing just as quickly.  AV Weather is talking only moderate falls in the Riverina (an inch or so) for October, though indicates that conditions for rain are improving.
 

Weather insurance
We’re told that the Coalition isn’t interested in helping the development of a more effective weather insurance market to help mitigate the risks of an increasingly variable climate. Recent government investment in the often clunky and expensive multi-peril crop insurance hasn’t proved successful, and current attention is on immediate assistance for struggling farm businesses.

This is an important financial option for Australian agribusiness, especially when they need to lock in crop potential during decent seasons. Let’s hope whichever party is in power after May 2019 takes a sensible look at the role for financial instruments in national drought policy.
 

Grain contract washouts
Agfarm’s recent weekly wrap included comment on crop washouts:

“This week saw continued enquiries on new crop washouts due to conditions, however not many are pulling the trigger just yet as numbers are very high with frost talk coming from all corners of Australia.”

Here’s a fantastic piece from Andrew Whitelaw at Mecardo on grain contract washouts.

Check It Out Here

New air freight option
NFF has reported that the new Badgery’s Creek airport will have an agri-precinct to export fresh produce to Asian markets.

“The new agri-precinct will provide just-in-time supply chains and 27/7 airfreight facilities for international markets, particularly for China, and Southeast Asia.”

NFF piece here.

Check It Out Here

Cricket is back
We’re playing a two-test series against Pakistan in the UAE and here’s the betting for the first test:

Pakistan: $1.90
Australia: $3.10
Draw: $4.60

Colin Bettles podcast
Our podcast with Colin Bettles is up, covering rural journalism, ag sector communications, cricket and more.
 
Listen Here

Managing climate risk in ag conference
This event in Beechworth on 25 October looks interesting, with scientific, legal, financial, health, market, and technology experts discussing climatic risk in agriculture and how to manage it.

Check It Out Here

Titania McGrath
The best lampooning of modern political correctness is here.

Follow Here

Ute culture
Recently had a great day (and night) at the Deni Ute Muster. The Deni community does a great job putting on such a large event with many challenges. A big shout out to Amanda Lolicato, Marg Tait, Russell Tait, the guys from Club Med and many other volunteers for doing such a fantastic job making it happen. Here’s is an old school Falcon ute ad that wouldn’t pass advertising standards these days.

Watch Here
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Our mailing address is:
andrew@progressiveagriculture.com.au

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Progressive Agriculture · 13/120 Fitzmaurice Street · Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650 · Australia

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