The team at Peppin are delighted to collaborate with Andrew for friends and clients.
Hi All,

Welcome to the fifth Progressive Agriculture update. It’s got all the regular stuff and another piece of gold in retro corner.

Andrew Bomm
Prices stable – for now

Prices have stabilised in both valleys as demand and supply drivers become settled. Weather over summer will have a large effect if it’s particularly hot and dry. If you’re into some more lengthy analysis of the market and risk strategies I’ve written a piece for H2OX that will be in the IREC newsletter soon. It will be available through this link: 
Click Here
Inter-valley trade to open in 2017 

A big question for irrigators is what the IVT account balance is going to do. It has implications for the price discount in the Murrumbidgee and the ability for irrigators to execute diversification strategies. Last year, MDBA and NSW DPI arranged an immediate 50GL transfer of water between the Murray and Murrumbidgee for the purpose of opening trade between those valleys. Murray downstream needs were put through Balranald so trade could open – in one violent hit. Did everyone enjoy the mayhem that ensued?

To complete silence on Twitter, since 10 November I’ve been asking NSW DPI and the MDBA for advice about the likelihood of their decisions changing the IVT account balance. Who do I ask? The non-existent market liaison people they employ?

But then there was this from the October update to the MDBA annual operating plan published on 18 November:
MDBA will request water from both valleys as early as practicable in the coming months to help meet demands in the Murray. Current planning indicates the start of deliveries in January 2017. The timing and volumes of IVT requested by MDBA and delivered by state agency partners are subject to change depending on demands, however current plans are for approximately 180 GL to be requested from the Goulburn valley over the period January to May 2017, and 100 GL from the Murrumbidgee catchment over a similar period.

Gee I’m glad MDBA spent the last couple of weeks tweeting about their staff paddling down the river on canoes.
Summer is hard to pick…

Climatic drivers are currently in a state of flux at the moment, making it hard for forecasters to predict summer rainfall likelihood and beyond into autumn winter crop planting. The IOD has shifted to a more normal setting and La Nina isn’t really happening.

The BOM has called a drier than average summer, but a potentially large event forecast for early December may see that tested.

Trump wins - here’s why

The US election result caught a lot of people by surprise (including me) and apologies if you laid your cash down on Hillary with the bookies. There has been a lot of talk about the white working class voter awaking from his slumber and turning out for Trump, the media ignored the phenomenon, people didn’t admit their Trump leanings to pollsters, that we all should have seen it coming, etc. The reason he won was that the Democrat vote didn’t front up, especially in crucial states that determined the outcome. Democrat voters didn’t like their candidate enough and didn’t turn up to vote for her. You’d think the possibility of Trump being President would have motivated them, but Clinton was that unappealing that it didn’t.

Here are the numbers: in the 2016 election, Trump lost on the popular vote 62-64 million votes nationally (but won on key states). Compare this with previous results. In 2012 the Democrat candidate (Obama) received 65 million votes, and the Republican’s Mitt Romney got 60 million. In 2008 it was 69-60 million in favour of the Democrats. Bush’s victory for the Republicans in 2004 was achieved with 62 million votes.

Notice a pattern here? The overall Republican vote has barely moved at all - up or down - in the last decade. Consistently around the 60-62 million mark, which just shows how irrelevant facts are to a media looking to develop their own ‘exciting’ story around the result. When Democrat voters turn up, they win. When they don’t, they lose. All this media bluster about a revolution is nonsense. The US is the same divided mess as it has been for years. The Democratic Party machine made a huge strategic blunder by stitching up the nomination for the very unpopular Hillary Clinton, and not getting the campaign right in key rust belt states.

A great professional development opportunity

Progressive Agriculture and Peppin Planners at Deniliquin are looking to collaborate on a couple of things. One is to provide a professional development experience that will help entrepreneurial farmers reach their objectives. It will provide board-style farm business decision making, risk management expertise, investor readiness capabilities, networking opportunities and an overseas study tour to look at innovation and agribusiness investment in the US. Please flick me an email if you’d be interested or forward the opportunity to someone who might.
Blockchain is coming

Have you heard of blockchain? It’s supposed to be the next big thing since the internet, but there is scepticism. Check out ABC Radio National’s ‘The Money’ podcast page and click on ‘Blockchain myth and reality’. 
Trump is not the buffoon he made out

This is a great video. It’s Donald Trump getting interviewed in 1988 by Oprah Winfrey. He expresses views consistent with his election campaign but much better articulated. He played a particular sort of character to get elected, but the reality may be a little less frightening. 
VIDEO  Uncovered Trump Interview From Over 25 Years Ago Will Shock A Lot of People
Politics and interest rates 

Labor are $1.60 and the Coalition $2.25 to form government after the next election. This is amazing given Labor’s recent history. I’m not recommending a bet here, as unpredictability seems to be defining how politics is panning out at present. $1.60 seems very short though.

Interest rate betting has turned – it’s now $1.87 take your pick on up or down.
GRDC has great info

GRDC do some great social media. People might complain about their extension on the ground but they put out great content. They’ve got such a diverse range of crops and farming systems within their portfolio that efficient content distribution becomes important. The material is especially good for frontline retail advisers, covering business and cropping. Their facebook page is great.
See It Here
Harvest time

Everyone’s pretty busy with harvesting and summer crop establishment so there aren’t many events happening at the moment.

Over the longer term, the GRDC grains research update is on in Wagga on Valentine’s day next year (that’s 14 February for the non-romantics).
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