Trump wins - here’s why
The US election result caught a lot of people by surprise (including me) and apologies if you laid your cash down on Hillary with the bookies. There has been a lot of talk about the white working class voter awaking from his slumber and turning out for Trump, the media ignored the phenomenon, people didn’t admit their Trump leanings to pollsters, that we all should have seen it coming, etc. The reason he won was that the Democrat vote didn’t front up, especially in crucial states that determined the outcome. Democrat voters didn’t like their candidate enough and didn’t turn up to vote for her. You’d think the possibility of Trump being President would have motivated them, but Clinton was that unappealing that it didn’t.
Here are the numbers: in the 2016 election, Trump lost on the popular vote 62-64 million votes nationally (but won on key states). Compare this with previous results. In 2012 the Democrat candidate (Obama) received 65 million votes, and the Republican’s Mitt Romney got 60 million. In 2008 it was 69-60 million in favour of the Democrats. Bush’s victory for the Republicans in 2004 was achieved with 62 million votes.
Notice a pattern here? The overall Republican vote has barely moved at all - up or down - in the last decade. Consistently around the 60-62 million mark, which just shows how irrelevant facts are to a media looking to develop their own ‘exciting’ story around the result. When Democrat voters turn up, they win. When they don’t, they lose. All this media bluster about a revolution is nonsense. The US is the same divided mess as it has been for years. The Democratic Party machine made a huge strategic blunder by stitching up the nomination for the very unpopular Hillary Clinton, and not getting the campaign right in key rust belt states.